I need help with portfolio perfomance forecasting


#1

Hi,

I have found this forum on google and it sounds like a lot of people who are knowledgeable…

I am creating a portfolio perfomance forecast for a group of portfolio I would like to present but it is turning into a nightmare.

  • I found data. I have calculated the change, and thus expected return and standard deviation for each stock (7 of them)
  • I then create a variance/covariance matrix.
  • I give the weight to each stock in each portfolio and then i calculate expected return and expected standard deviation for each portfolio given specific weight using mmult and transpose formulas
  • until then i assume everything is ok but then I read on a company’s website they adjust their portfolio for risk premium and risk free rate and credit spreads and rent level. At this point I get lost because i dont know who to go about it.

Note: I used montecarlo simulation for the graphical part.

Is there anyone who can help me?

Thanks a lot

Victor Vasquez


#2

Is my understanding correct, that your question is not related to the use of the software “Portfolio Performance”?


#3

Oh… im sorry… did not notice this was a software.
does the software does what i need help with?

Thanks


#4

No problem. I just wanted to make sure to put your question in the right context.

The software Portfolio Performance is used to retrospectivly calculate the performance of a portfolio (or parts of it). So I guess, it won’t help you with forecasting. But maybe some user can answer your question :slight_smile:


#5

Oh :frowning: that is a shame since a software would be of help.

Thanks for allowing me leave the comment for users to see it. maybe someone know the answer to this hehe

Thanks again